The Unpredictability of Baseball: A Trait No Other Sport Can Duplicate

On the surface baseball presents itself the same as the other major sports, score more runs/points/goals than the opposition by the end of the game and you've won. That's about the only thing they all have in common outside of one specific parameter, time. Basketball, football, and hockey are sports that use time to dictate everything within them. All games are the same length outside of the occasional overtime. Basketball has the shot clock, hockey has timed penalties, and football has a play clock. Baseball is the only sport that is untimed which allows teams to control their own fate instead of being at the mercy of a ticking clock. This ability to control your own destiny by simply performing better than the opposition for a full 9 innings is what makes baseball so unpredictable. No matter the defect you're still given equal opportunity to claw back into the game whereas in the other sports, teams with a lead can just drain the clock and never allow the possibility of a comeback.

This topic jumped to mind after witnessing both the Rangers and Diamondbacks win 2 do-or-die games on the road to advance to the World Series. Just 2 seasons ago they were 2 of the 3 worst teams in the league losing 102 and 110 games respectively. These atrocious seasons were only outdone by the 115 loss Orioles who also flipped the script, nabbing the #1 seed in the AL with 102 wins this season. A Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series matchup wasn't on anybody's bingo card before the season and that sentiment didn't change come playoff time either. Each team was thought to have major holes that the more experienced, star-studded, powerhouse teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, and Astros could take advantage of.

The Rangers came into the playoffs extremely streaky, winning and losing games in large chunks equating to a 13-12 record in their last 25 games. This was largely due to a bullpen that blew games just as often as they saved them all season, typically a recipe for disaster when the playoffs roll around. They were overlooked because of this but, just like we've seen in many deep "miracle" runs of the past, the offense absolutely scorches baseballs. They've scored 4+ runs in 9 of their 12 postseason games up to this point and the starting staff has been solid which has reduced the amount of bullpen innings they have to stomach. There have been some games that the Rangers lost to the Astros and narrowly escaped against the Orioles directly attributed to the bullpen woes. The thing is; the offense has been so hot on this run that it masks these massive holes by continuing to pour on runs every chance they get. The bullpen should have a tough time losing games when the offense produces an average of just over 6 runs a contest in the postseason.

The Diamondbacks came out of the gates firing, jumping out to a 4.5 game lead in the vaunted NL West by being 16 wins over .500 in mid-June. Along came a horrific stretch from early July into mid-August that saw that +16 in the win column turn into a -2, topping out at 16 games back of the division lead, and out of the playoff picture having to fight 5 other teams for the 3 wild card spots. They didn't set the world on fire in September, but they did more than the Reds, Giants, and Cubs, the last of which gifted Arizona the final spot with a backbreaking game ending error by Seiya Suzuki in their final series against Atlanta. This team limped into the postseason with an 84-78 record and were pretty universally considered to be the worst team out of the 12 total. Apparently, they took that personally and decided they were going to morph into the June squad that was on pace for 100 wins overnight. Their run at redemption began with sweeping the 92-win Brewers and then the 100-win Dodgers without a fight from either team in any of the 5 games. The Phillies gave them that fight, putting Arizona down 0-2 and 2-3 in the series but the Snakes have had their backs against the wall, fighting to stay alive for months so winning like this was nothing new to them. The Diamondbacks aren't on an offensive heater like the Rangers are, they're on this run because of almost everyone delivering in high leverage situations at the plate, quality starts in the elimination games, and a bullpen that's been nails late in games.

Two teams that nobody expected anything more than potentially a playoff berth that flames out early. Two teams that lost over 100 games just 2 years ago. Two teams that have built their rosters very differently: the Rangers through major free agent acquisitions and the Diamondbacks through rising farm talent and stealth trades. Two teams that will be playing a World Series against each other when basic understanding of these teams tells you they shouldn't have gotten close. No other sport produces Cinderella stories like baseball does due to its unpredictability. Anybody can beat anybody anytime when you catch lightning in a bottle. Like an 84-win team walking through 3 of the best teams in baseball or a 90-win team with a ticking time bomb bullpen not being phased because they believe they'll score more runs than they give up. Basketball and football never have teams who barely sneak into the playoffs and reach the pinnacle of their sports, you can predict with decent certainty who actually has a chance before the season even starts. Hockey has the occasional Cinderella run, the 2019 Blues for example, but the frequency of them is just much lower than baseball runs. Every year there's a team that's being overlooked or straight up counted out that rises way above expectations to make a deep run. It's what I love most about baseball, you always have a realistic chance as long as you make the dance, even for a tortured Twins fan like me.